Re: [DML] Concours- was Blue Book Value

[mike.griese@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Robert said:

> Mopar Hemis, and other cars are yet another apples to oranges 
> comparison to DeLoreans. How many Chrysler models were available with 
> Hemi options. Now compare how many of these models were produced 
> overall, versus how many took that Hemi option. So this does indeed 
> justify as to why these cars were rare, hense their value. Now look at 
> the DeLorean. 1 platform, 1 model, 2 factory options, and only trival 
> cosmetic changes. Otherwise, it just the same car. 
> 
> With muscle cars, you break it down to 
> Year->Manufacturer->Platform->Model->Powerplant->Transmission->Option 
> Package->Paint color->Assorted Documentation. And then divide this by 
> production #'s. So if someone says, I want a numbers matching 1971 
> Dodge Challenger R/T with a 440 & pistol grip trans in Arctic White 
> with NO vinyl top & it's build sheet, then yes, that's a rare car, 
> because of it's production numbers, which usually justifies it's value. 


In a round-about way, this supports one of my arguments.    
The rarity of that Challenger is what makes the economics of a 
restoration feasible.  If you happen to find that car sitting up 
on blocks with the engine sitting in the back seat, the windows
broken out, and a family of raccoons living in the trunk, there
is probably enough margin in the perceived value of the car 
to bring it back.  The question is - bring it back to what?

That restored, numbers matching, 1971 Dodge Challenger would not 
sell for near as much if it had a modern fuel injection system, tricked 
suspension, different wheels and tires, and a stainless steel undercarriage.  
Those changes may make the car "better" in that it won't rust as much, 
it will start and idle better, and it will handle more like a new car, but 
that's not where the big bucks are.  The market values originality.  
And the process for determining the degree of originality is a judges 
manual and a Concours.  Otherwise it's just an interesting used car. 

Many people are lamenting a rise in value for the DeLorean.  This 
is an absolutely necessary step if these cars are to survive.  Most 
production cars follow a predictable valuation curve.  They start 
out at or above their MSRP as demand outstrips supply.  This 
will also inflate the value of used cars.  Once supply catches up, 
the new car price falls to below MSRP and dealers are willing
to deal on price to move inventory.  This also depresses used
car prices.  Eventually, the next new thing shows up, further
depressing prices.  As prices fall, people who would not have
been able to afford a new example will now be able to buy 
a car.  Unfortunately, this car has likely had some use and,
as a result, has some needs.  Some of these new owners will be 
able to afford the upkeep on the car, others will not.  As 
maintenance and repairs are deferred, the cars become less 
valuable, making them available to potential owners even less
able to provide maintenance and upkeep.

You can see this phenomena in the DML as some prospective 
new owners are looking for DeLoreans for as little as possible.  
These cars are repaired with inexpensive, somewhat questionable
parts and techniques, further depressing their value and their
desirability.  More serious repairs, such as frame rust never 
get addressed.  Eventually these cars stop running and aren't 
worth enough to repair.  There are exceptions, but they are rare 
at this point in the overall cycle.  As more and more cars fall out 
the bottom, the remaining cars become rarer.  This could potentially 
increase their value as long as there is still interest in the marque.  
Things like car shows, open houses, Concours, and even JZD's
death increase interest in the car, if only temporarily.
 
We probably haven't reached the point where the number of
cars is less than the number of people who want to buy one.

--
Mike

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]






To address comments privately to the moderating team, please address:
moderators@xxxxxxxxxxx

For more info on the list, tech articles, cars for sale see www.dmcnews.com

To search the archives or view files, log in at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/dmcnews 
Yahoo! Groups Links

<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/dmcnews/

<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
    dmcnews-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
    http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/