[DMCForum] President Edwards?

[Marc Levy <malevy_nj@xxxxxxxxx>]

President Edwards?
By STEPHEN J. MARMON

Published: October 29, 2004
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NY TIMES

President Edwards?
by Stephen J. Marmon

Philadelphia

It's Jan. 20, 2005, and a stunned America watches as
John Edwards is 
sworn
in as both vice president and acting president of the
United States.
Impossible? No, nor is a Bush-Edwards administration.

There are just a few upsets needed in states where the
presidential 
race is
very close. Even if President Bush wins Wisconsin and
Minnesota - two 
states
he lost in 2000 - Senator John Kerry would force a
269-269 Electoral 
College
tie if he carries Colorado, Missouri, Nevada and New
Hampshire, and Al
Gore's states. 

But Colorado's ballot initiative to divide its
electoral votes by 
popular
ballot, rather than have them be winner take all,
could change all 
that. If
it's approved, and voting in that state splits as it
did in 2000, Mr. 
Bush
would pick up four votes, and win 273-265.

If recounts, challenges to provisional ballots and
other legal actions 
don't
overturn that result, the Supreme Court could again be
called upon to 
decide
the election. Imagine a ruling that applies the
results of the Colorado
initiative only to future presidential elections, not
the 2004 contest. 
That
would reinstate the Electoral College 269-269
deadlock, and send the 
tied
contests to Congress; the House would choose the
president and the 
Senate
the vice president.

In the Senate, at least 51 votes would be required to
elect a vice
president. Given current polls, the Democrats can gain
control of the 
Senate
by picking up seats in Alaska, Colorado, Illinois,
Kentucky and 
Oklahoma,
while losing seats in Florida, Georgia and South
Carolina. Senator 
Edwards
would be elected as vice president.

The House, however, votes for president by state, with
26 delegations
required for election. If members of the House then
voted as their 
states
did, President Bush, in this scenario, would carry 28
states, thus 
leading
to a Bush-Edwards administration.

Both Minnesota and Wisconsin, however, have House
delegations that are
evenly divided and are expected to remain that way.
Members in those 
two
states could decide to vote in line with the results
of their 
districts, not
the statewide result, thus their states would not be
able to cast a 
vote
because they deadlocked. If the Congressional
delegation in one other 
state
that also voted for Mr. Bush happened to deadlock, or
defied the state
result and voted for Senator Kerry, President Bush
would get only 25 
states.

The Constitution provides that the vice president
becomes president if 
the
president dies, resigns or is removed from office. But
the 20th 
Amendment
states that: "If a president shall not have been
chosen before the time
fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the
president-elect shall 
have
failed to qualify, then the vice president-elect shall
act as president
until a president shall have qualified."

The House could remain deadlocked for two years, and
perhaps even four,
depending on the results of the 2006 Congressional
elections. And until 
the
House reaches a decision, Acting President John
Edwards would occupy 
the
Oval Office.

Stephen J. Marmon, who reported on the House of
Representatives for The
Times from 1971 to 1973, is an investment banker.



            
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